Progress continues on book 3 of my Fundamentals of Complex System Sustainment Series of ebooks. (Enter “charles vono” in the search bar at Amazon.com.) I hope to release it in early January.
The title is: “Affordable Assessment”. What does this title mean? What does it imply? I answer those questions in the introductory chapter. See below.
Compared to thoroughly observing your system, taking the results of that observation and discussing the associated risks is very inexpensive. Taking actions to deal with those risks comes with options for the decision-makers and pursestring-holders for how much money should be expended. But performing thorough observations across a massive complex system can quickly drain your purse. Either executive decisions or market forces will kill your system if it costs too much to keep it going. In other words, un-affordable assessment is a threat to the very existence of your system and your sustainment organization.
The other key characteristic of ‘assessment’ is credibility. Will decision-makers and purse-string-holders see your list of suggested risk mitigations as credible? Why not emphasize credibility?
“Affordable assessment” is meant to imply that the product of your observations, the data the fuels your risk identification process, is not only obtained economically, but is also something that everyone can depend upon. Otherwise, it would be called “cheap assessment”.
Examples of losing the credibility of your observations:
- Over decades, your testing varies from because of shifts in location, methods, experience, or data repositories. Everyone beings to suspect your supposed negative trends are simply artifacts of these elements. Your observations lack discipline.
- Your statisticians apply inappropriate methods to analysis of your data. Trends are hard to defend because the summary trend charts make no sense. For instance, an exponential decay process is modeled using a straight line. Your analyses lack rigor.
- Component-level testing reveals a serious current degradation which has never been seen during operations or maintenance. Or apparent degradations in one part of your system are not found in another part of your system which uses the same design. Or your apparent emerging failure mode disappears when chased to its supposed source. Your observations lack consistency.
This book describes ways to avoid these and other observation problems and save money at the same time.